Sam Schwartz analysis finds little change in traffic fatalities in 2019

The overall number of traffic fatalities in the U.S. in 2019 looks to be essentially unchanged compared with 2018, according to a Sam Schwartz analysis of preliminary data from 22 states and the District of Columbia.

Sam Schwartz analyzed year-to-date fatality data posted on state DOT and state police websites as of December 31. The preliminary data show the number of fatalities in 2019 compared with 2018:

·Increased in 10 states

·Decreased in 12 states plus the District of Columbia

Overall, an estimated 13,102 preliminary traffic fatalities were reported in 2019 for these states plus DC compared with 13,242 in 2018, equating to a one percent decrease (Table 1). However, because the 2019 fatality counts are preliminary and are likely to increase when final data are reported, Sam Schwartz projects the overall number of traffic fatalities in 2019 will be essentially unchanged compared with 2018 for 22 states plus DC.

The data available from these 23 jurisdictions represent approximately 36 percent of nationwide fatality counts. The analysis does not include data from states with the largest numbers of traffic deaths such as Texas, California, Florida, and New York. Thus, while the data provide an early indication of likely trends in the number of U.S. traffic fatalities for 2019, the analysis is not necessarily representative of overall national trends.    

“These 22 states plus DC should be commended for providing public access to year-to-date preliminary fatality data, even when the news is not encouraging,” said Richard Retting, a widely recognized traffic safety expert and the National Practice Leader for Safety & Research at Sam Schwartz. “Access to such data for all states would provide a more accurate national picture of traffic fatality trends at year end.”

For 2018 the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration reported 36,560 traffic fatalities. Based on this preliminary analysis, it is likely that a similar number of nationwide traffic fatalities will have occurred in 2019. 

"One hundred traffic deaths per day on U.S. roads is tragic and unacceptable,” Retting added. “While it is good to see declining numbers of traffic fatalities in several states, the overall picture remains bleak due to increases in fatalities in other states. We are not seeing consistent, nationwide progress in achieving fatality reductions promoted by Toward Zero Deaths and Vision Zero programs. Although there is a possibility that final fatality figures for 2019 will provide more encouraging news, the preliminary data suggest a lack of progress in driving down the total number of fatalities.”