First Look at 2020 Traffic Fatality Rates Shows Sharp Spike

This post is part of our comprehensive look at how COVID-19 is reshaping the mobility landscape.  For more original research, project work, and thought leadership from the Sam Schwartz team, visit the COVID-19 Response + Analysis center.

The first look at 2020 traffic death rates shows an unprecedented increase over the first six months, according to a Sam Schwartz analysis of publicly available data regarding traffic fatalities and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) from 22 states and the District of Columbia.

Researchers at Sam Schwartz extracted 2019 and 2020 traffic fatality counts for the first six months of 2020 from 22 states and the District of Columbia that publicly report such data along with VMT data from the Federal Highway Administration. The analysis shows that while the absolute number of traffic deaths in these states combined declined by about 6 percent during the first six months of 2020 compared with the same period in 2019, the fatality rate per VMT increased 12.7 percent, based on a 16.6 percent reduction in VMT. The large decline in VMT is attributed to the effects of Covid-19. 

Had the fatality rate for the first six months of 2020 remained at the 2019 level for these 22 states and the District of Columbia combined, the expected number of traffic deaths during the first 6 months of 2020 would be about 5,636, versus the 6,357 reported. This represents an estimated 719 more deaths than would be expected based on vehicle miles traveled in 2020.

This analysis most likely represents an underestimate of the actual increase in fatality rates because 2020 fatality data are preliminary, and preliminary data generally undercounts the final numbers of traffic deaths.

Based on nationwide traffic fatality data from 2014-2018, the 22 states and the District of Columbia included in this analysis represent approximately 40% of all U.S. traffic deaths. Extrapolating results of this analysis nationwide, the estimated number of additional traffic deaths could be as high as 1,800 nationwide due to higher fatality rates, assuming the other 28 states followed similar patterns of changes in numbers of traffic deaths and VMT. In fact, the Federal Highway Administration reported a 16.6 percent reduction in nationwide VMT, which is identical to the reduction observed in the 22 states and the District of Columbia. 

"This increase in traffic fatality rates is tragic and unacceptable,” said Richard Retting, a widely recognized traffic safety expert and the National Practice Leader for Safety & Research at Sam Schwartz. “While it is good to see a decline in absolute numbers of traffic fatalities during the Covid era, the overall picture remains bleak due to increases in fatalities rates. We should have seen very large reductions in traffic deaths due to large reductions in VMT. Sadly, that did not happen.” 

While this analysis does not identify underlying causes for the increased fatality rate, higher travel speeds is a likely factor given emptier roads and greater opportunity for speeding.

“These 22 states plus the District of Columbia should be commended for providing public access to year-to-date preliminary fatality data, even when the news is not encouraging,” said Retting. “Access to such data for all states would provide a more accurate nationwide picture of traffic fatality trends.”

The analysis surveyed data from: Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Illinois, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, New Jersey, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, Vermont, Washington DC, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

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